India Among Global Growth Bright Spots As Fitch Raises FY26 GDP Forecast To 7.5 Per Cent
Fitch Ratings has raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.5 per cent, up from its December projection of 7.4 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand as the primary driver.
The rating agency's Global Economic Outlook for March 2026 highlighted that consumer spending and investment are expected to expand by 8.6 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively in FY26, despite tentative signs of slowing activity in January and February.
The upgrade comes as India's economy ranks among the few bright spots in the global landscape, supported by robust services activity and sustained public investment in infrastructure.
High-frequency indicators including GST collections, manufacturing output, air travel demand and digital payments continue to signal steady momentum, even as global trade headwinds persist.
India's third-quarter GDP growth eased to 7.8 per cent from 8.4 per cent in the previous quarter, following the country's rebasing of GDP calculations to the base year 2022-23.
For FY27, Fitch has revised upwards its growth estimate to 6.7 per cent from 6.4 per cent, though the agency expects growth to moderate in the first half of the year as rising inflation constrains real incomes and limits consumer spending.
Investment growth is likely to slow in the short term but should recover from the second half of FY27 with looser financial conditions and declining real interest rates.
The agency projects growth will further moderate to 6.5 per cent in FY28.
Fitch also projected global GDP growth at 2.6 per cent in 2026, an upward revision from its December outlook, contingent on the recent spike in oil prices being temporary.
The agency forecast the US economy to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2026, while China's economy is expected to slow to 4.3 per cent from 5 per cent in 2025 amid weakening consumer spending growth.
Fitch's baseline assumes oil prices will remain in the $90-100 range through March before falling to the mid-60s by the second half of 2026.