Fence-Sitters, Spoilers, And Seat Math: Why Modi’s January 23 Chennai Rally Matters

On the outskirts of Chennai, preparations are underway for what the Bharatiya Janata Party hopes will be more than just another political rally.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes the stage on 23 January, he will not merely be addressing a crowd—he will be attempting to signal that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu is no longer a loose collection of hesitant partners, but a coherent force ready for battle.

With a little over two months left for elections, time is no longer a luxury. While seat-sharing talks between the BJP and its principal ally, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), continue behind closed doors, the broader project is far more ambitious: stitching together a coalition large enough, and united enough, to challenge the entrenched Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

Anbumani Ramadoss’s Pattali Makkal Katchi faction has already pledged allegiance, but ADMK chief Edappadi Palaniswami and state BJP chief Nainar Nagendran are looking beyond this early consolidation. Their aim is not just political optics—it is electoral arithmetic.

In a state where several smaller players command limited but decisive vote shares, both leaders believe that consolidating these fragments is necessary to build a numerically formidable coalition. On the opposite side, even though the Congress and the DMK are not on the best of terms at present, the alliance composition is more or less settled, giving them a head start in campaign preparation.

Talks are reportedly underway with a range of familiar names: the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) of the late actor Vijayakanth, Puthiya Tamizhagam led by Dr Krishnasamy, and former AIADMK leaders such as TTV Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam.

Most of these parties have been part of the NDA in the past but are currently keeping their cards close to the chest. The rally is therefore expected to serve as a grand unveiling. A show of strength where final alliance decisions could be announced and hesitant partners formally brought into the fold.

Political rallies featuring the Prime Minister have traditionally been used to showcase coalition unity, and any party joining the NDA would prefer its entry to be formalised on such a high-visibility platform. With the campaign calendar rapidly shrinking, this symbolism now carries added urgency.

Among the parties whose choices could shape the NDA’s final form, the DMDK led by Premalatha Vijayakanth occupies a position of considerable strategic importance. The party had aligned with the AIADMK in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Despite contesting five seats and losing all of them—including a narrow defeat in Virudhunagar, where her son lost by just 4,379 votes, the DMDK’s residual vote share of around three per cent remains relevant in close contests.

Equally significant is the status of Dhinakaran’s AMMK. He had quit the NDA in September 2025, saying he could not accept AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami as the chief ministerial candidate. However, Dhinakaran’s recent meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah on January 8 has triggered intense speculation about a possible return.

The AMMK retains a notable presence in the Thevar-dominated southern districts and had played spoilsport for the NDA in nearly 21 seats in the previous elections.

Then there is O Panneerselvam (OPS)—once the AIADMK’s chief ministerial face, now a political outlier. Having secured a 30.8 percent vote share as an independent candidate on the jackfruit symbol (with BJP backing) in Ramanathapuram during the 2024 elections—compared to the AIADMK’s dismal 8.99 percent—OPS continues to command pockets of residual loyalist support, albeit a shrinking one.

However, his recent hints about aligning with actor Vijay’s TVK suggest he may be positioning himself outside the NDA framework. The 23 January rally will reveal whether the BJP has managed to bring OPS back into the fold or has lost him permanently to the TVK camp.

Beyond these high-profile players, the NDA is also focusing on a second layer of smaller but electorally consequential outfits. Among them, Puthiya Tamizhagam led by Dr Krishnasamy holds significance due to its support among the Devendrakula Vellalar community, which has a presence across the southern districts and the delta region. With John Pandian’s TMMK—also rooted in the same community—already part of the NDA, bringing Krishnasamy on board could help consolidate this social base.

Parties such as the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi led by T R Pachamuthu, A C Shanmugam’s New Justice Party, and K C Thirumaran’s South Indian Forward Bloc represent the mosaic of micro-level, caste-based formations that often swing margins in Tamil Nadu’s fragmented polity. While their individual vote shares may appear negligible, in a state where victories are frequently decided by a few thousand votes, these parties provide crucial booth-level presence and community mobilisation networks. All three have already indicated support for the NDA, and their participation in the January 23 rally will formalise these commitments in public.

The Modi rally is therefore the NDA’s opportunity to project momentum, demonstrate organisational depth, and signal to fence-sitters that it is the most viable anti-DMK platform. While anti-incumbency against the DMK exists, unless opposition votes consolidate, the split is likely to benefit the ruling dispensation.

What unfolds on January 23 will determine whether the NDA enters the critical final phase of campaigning with a coherent, battle-ready alliance—or remains a work in progress struggling to match the DMK’s organisational preparedness.

Also Read: To Ask Or Not To Ask: Why Is Congress Pulling Both Ways In Tamil Nadu?