In Gujarat, the foundational bastion of the BJP's top leadership and a state under its uninterrupted rule for three decades, a pair of by-elections on 19th June is shaping up to be far more than a routine electoral exercise.

The upcoming polls in Visavadar and Kadi offer a fascinating tableau of contemporary politics. They serve as a crucial testing ground for the Congress's high-octane ‘Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan’, a battle for political survival for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and a vital litmus test for the BJP's governance model.

Furthermore, with both constituencies having a Scheduled Caste (SC) population of around 10%—significantly higher than the state average of 7%—and Kadi being an SC-reserved seat, these polls will cast a revealing light on the intricate SC politics of Gujarat.

The Congress's Grand Ambitions Meet Ground Reality

“This is a battle of ideologies... only the Congress can defeat the BJP and the RSS. Gujarat is the most important State for the party because the path to the BJP’s defeat goes through Gujarat,” declared Rahul Gandhi to his partymen in Modasa. This statement, made during the launch of the ‘Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan’, encapsulates the grand strategy of the Congress.

Following its AICC meeting in Ahmedabad, the party designated 2025 as the “year of organisational empowerment,” with a plan to overhaul its moribund structure by identifying “non-compromising” district presidents and granting them unprecedented autonomy, free from interference from the top. As Rahul Gandhi promised, "these district heads will have a greater say in the selection of candidates for Assembly elections.”

The decision to launch this ambitious revival from Gujarat, even as critical elections in Kerala and Assam loom, signals a profound belief within the Congress that denting the BJP's hegemony in its pinnacle state is the prerequisite for a national collapse. However, this top-down vision for revival is immediately confronted by the party's chronic ailment: deep-seated factionalism. The Gujarat unit remains a house divided, fractured by the competing ambitions of leaders like MP Shaktisinh Gohil, Bharatsingh Solanki, and Amit Chavda.

Nowhere is this internal contradiction more visible than in the actions of its fiery activist-leader, Jignesh Mevani. Even as the 'Abhiyan' gets underway, Mevani has publicly questioned the "incompetent leaders" still occupying key posts. He has allegedly refused to take responsibility as the Prabhari for the Kadi contest, citing the party leadership's silence over the alleged beating and death of a 20-year-old SC boy in Amreli.

Compounding the issue, his preferred candidate in Kadi was overlooked by the party, prompting Mevani to pointedly abstain from the official nomination rally. Against this backdrop of internal strife, the Congress enters the fray in Visavadar and Kadi, hoping to make a mark in regions—Saurashtra and North Gujarat—where the cooperative movement once gave it strength.

AAP's Battle For Relevance After The 'Delhi Model' Falters

Another leader with ambitions to defeat the BJP on its home turf is Arvind Kejriwal. For him and his party, the bypolls in Visavadar and Ludhiana West are critical to maintaining relevance in the national polity, especially after the AAP’s spectacular loss in Delhi has tarnished the sheen of its much-touted governance model. To lead this crucial charge, the party has projected Gopal Italia, arguably its most recognisable—and controversial—face in the state.

Italia’s profile is emblematic of AAP's disruptive brand of politics. His political journey from a police constable to a professional anti-establishment agitator is punctuated by theatrical controversies, including an infamous shoe-hurling incident aimed at a Gujarat Home Minister and a viral phone call with then-Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel. This background gives him a certain notoriety, making him a deeply polarising figure—a celebrated maverick for his supporters, but a constant annoyance for his detractors.

However, this polarising persona comes with significant electoral baggage. Italia is still shadowed by his crushing defeat in the 2022 elections from Katargam (Surat), where he lost by a margin of over 64,000 votes. Furthermore, his status as an 'outsider' in Visavadar presents a formidable challenge in a state where local identity is paramount. His candidacy, therefore, represents a high-risk gamble for the AAP.

AAP's national strategy has been to position itself as the alternative in states dominated by a BJP-Congress binary. After unsuccessful forays in Himachal and Uttarakhand, and securing two seats in Goa, its strongest bid came in the 2022 Gujarat elections. With a high-decibel campaign, it sought to replace the Congress, branding it the BJP's B-team. It secured a 12.92% vote share and won 5 seats by targeting SC-ST communities, the urban poor, and Patidars who had backed the Congress in 2017, promising a welfare model and the implementation of the PESA Act for tribal areas.

While it’s too simplistic to say AAP alone propelled the BJP to a record 156 seats, it is undeniable that they played a spoiler; in 27 seats, the Congress was the runner-up, losing by a margin smaller than the votes AAP polled.

Knowing his party's limitations now, Kejriwal's rhetoric in Visavadar has shifted to attacking the BJP for "unethical politics" and poaching MLAs. He reminds voters that despite the BJP's statewide sweep, it was the AAP that won Visavadar in 2022.

In a strategic move to appease the influential Leuva Patidar voters, the AAP even unveiled a statue of the late Keshubhai Patel, a regional stalwart who represented the seat multiple times. For AAP, a strong performance is essential to keep its brand afloat and prove it can be more than just a vote-splitter.

Yet beyond high-decibel campaigns and ideological narratives, the real electoral calculus may hinge on a quieter, more complex struggle: the fight for the Scheduled Caste vote”

The Complex Web Of SC Politics in the State

In a state known as the RSS's laboratory of Hindutva, the Scheduled Caste communities have remained a complex puzzle for the BJP. Constituting around 7% of the populace, the SC vote, while not decisive statewide, can shape narratives and outcomes in key regions like Saurashtra and North Gujarat. Out of roughly 40 lakh SCs, about 17 lakh belong to the Vankar/Bunkar community and 10 lakh to the Charmakar/Chamar/Rohit community.

The Vankar community has been traditionally resistant to Hindutva ideology, showing an affinity for radical outfits like BAMCEF and the Samata Sainik Dal, and has been influenced by the neo-Buddhist movement in neighbouring Maharashtra. Conversely, the Charmakar community has not displayed the same ideological hostility and has members actively working within the BJP's 'Vichar Parivar'.

Yet, according to a Samarasta Manch Karyakarta, the BJP has fallen into a "vicious circle," cynically inducting established Charmakar leaders from outside rather than cultivating its homegrown cadre, and then complaining about a dearth of mature SC leadership.

This dilemma came to a head in the 2022 polls. The BJP chose to appease the ideologically hostile Vankar community by giving them 11 of the 13 SC-reserved seats, taking the Charmakars' support for granted. This gamble is now being threatened by the rise of Jignesh Mevani.

Emerging from the infamous Una incident, Mevani and the ecosystem of NGOs supporting him successfully created a powerful anti-Hindutva narrative. His greatest impact may be the fact that he hails from the Charmakar community. His allegiance is now causing the youth of this once-loyal community to slip away from the BJP, leaving the party’s SC support base on increasingly shaky ground.

This intricate political and social backdrop makes the candidate selection in the reserved seat of Kadi particularly telling. The BJP, for its part, has placed its bet on Rajendra Chavda, a 66-year-old party veteran. However, his nomination is not without risk, as Chavda hails from Jotana, making him an 'outsider' in the local political calculus of Kadi, forcing the party to rely more heavily on its organisational strength.

In stark contrast, the Congress has opted for a candidate with deep local roots, former MLA Ramesh Chavda. His perceived reliability, strong local connect, and established popularity among the crucial Muslim and Thakor communities represent a traditional, ground-up approach. It is precisely this selection of a 'safe' party loyalist that appears to have been the final trigger for Jignesh Mevani's public dissent, exposing the party's internal fault lines over candidate choice.

Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party's presence in Kadi appears largely symbolic, underscoring where its strategic priorities lie. Their candidate, Jagdish Chavda, is described by local political reporters as a relative unknown beyond his own village, a reflection of the party's minimal ground presence and organisational depth in this part of Gujarat.

Why These Bypolls Matter: The Battle For Narrative And Morale

While by-elections rarely alter the arithmetic of state power, their symbolic weight is immense, and for an incumbent, a loss can sow seeds of doubt. The BJP is not immune to this phenomenon; the surprising losses in the prestigious seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur in 2018, and more recently the defeat in its bastion of Kasba Peth in 2023, serve as cautionary tales. They demonstrate how local factors and the opposition can, at times, challenge even the most formidable electoral machine.

For the BJP, the stakes are particularly acute in Visavadar. This Patidar-dominated constituency is not just another electoral contest; it is the symbolic cradle of the party’s original rise to power in Gujarat. It was Visavadar that served as the launchpad for the late Keshubhai Patel, who ascended from this very seat to become the BJP’s first Chief Minister in the state in 1995. A struggle here, let alone a defeat, has been more than a numerical loss; yet another defeat would be a significant psychological dent.

While both the AAP and the BJP have selected outsiders as their candidates, the INC has projected a son of the soil in Shri Nitin Ranpariya, its Bhesan taluka president. This enables INC to claim that they have chosen a local face who understands local issues.

For the opposition, therefore, these by-elections are a crucial opportunity to shape the political narrative. A victory for the Congress, or even a stellar performance, would be hailed as a significant boost, reminding the BJP of the tough contest it faced in 2017. It could provide the sail for the opposition's winds, potentially emboldening the scattered anti-BJP voters to coalesce behind the Congress as the primary challenger.

Conversely, a strong showing by the AAP would ensure its relevance for the 2027 assembly polls, but in doing so, would cement Gujarat’s evolution towards a tripolar polity—a fragmentation that, as seen in 2022, is strategically beneficial to the BJP. Conversely, this would also serve as a wake-up call for the INC to come up to reality and ally with the AAP to project a united opposition in the state. This would pose a challenge to the BJP.

For the BJP itself, a victory in both seats would serve as a powerful reaffirmation of its core strengths: the unmatched organisational prowess of its cadre, the persistent resonance of Prime Minister Modi in his home state, and a popular endorsement of its state administration. More importantly, such a result would deliver a demoralising blow to the Congress workers and the fringe anti-BJP elements right when they are attempting an organisational overhaul, effectively blunting their revival efforts before they can gain momentum.

The by-elections in Visavadar and Kadi are less a straightforward referendum on the BJP's long-standing governance and more a stark exposition of the opposition's endemic weaknesses. While the BJP navigates its complex challenges in social engineering and managing the aspirations of diverse caste groups, it does so from a position of formidable organisational strength.

In stark contrast, the Congress is attempting yet another revival that is being visibly undermined by the very internal conflicts it seeks to resolve. The AAP, its primary narrative weakened, is fighting a desperate battle to prove its model is sustainable outside of Delhi.

These bypolls, therefore, are set to reveal not a rising challenge to the BJP's fortress, but the fragmented and chaotic nature of the forces arrayed against it. The results, whatever they may be, are likely to underscore a persistent truth of Gujarat politics: the greatest asset for the ruling party remains an opposition that is profoundly at odds with itself.

Yugadeep

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