There’s less than a year remaining for the Kerala Legislative Assembly and less than six months for the Kerala Local Body polls. Yet, Kerala is gearing up for by-elections in Nilambur Assembly Constituency in Malappuram.

The by-elections were precipitated by the resignation of PV Anwar, an LDF-backed independent who trained his guns on Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in September last year. Malayalam media has already framed this by-election as a precursor to the upcoming 2025 local body polls and the 2026 Assembly elections.

Nilambur is also a unique constituency. Though it is in Malappuram, the constituency has a good percentage of Hindus and Christians.

It also has the unique distinction of being among the three constituencies of the sixteen in Malappuram that has been contested by the Congress on a regular basis. Of them, Nilambur is the only one for which the Congress had made a fort through Aryadan Mohammad, who won the constituency in a record six terms.

Nilambur’s Peculiar Dynamics

It is there that a businessman and former Congressman, PV Anvar, won in spectacular fashion in 2016, defeating Aryadan Mohammad’s son, Aryadan Shoukath.

Anvar won as an ‘LDF Independent’, a conception that CPM invented to overcome the reluctance of conservative Muslims to vote for the hammer and sickle. Anvar’s nomination and his prominent role in the first term of Pinarayi Vijayan were attributed to his closeness to the Chief Minister.

September 2024, though, had a rude surprise for the CM when Anvar trained his guns on MR Ajit Kumar, who was known to be close to the CM, and on the CM’s private secretary, P. Sasi, in effect questioning the CM himself. This all culminated in Anvar’s exit from the LDF, followed by his resignation in April of this year.

Though there is less than a year left for the elections, the by-election was notified. Since then, the political intrigue in Kerala has reached new heights, on the possible UDF and LDF candidates, and whether the BJP will contest.

With only a few days left for the polls, the picture is more or less clear. The Congress decided to go with Aryadan Shoukath for the third time, with LDF going with M Swaraj. Anvar, who had backed VP Joy, the Malappuram District Congress President, threatened to contest the election as he was dead set against Shoukath as the candidate.

Anvar, who is now part of Trinamool Congress, dilly-dallied on whether he would contest, but has ultimately chosen to contest. He had earlier tried to get himself into the UDF, but after his choice was refused, he rejected their offer of ‘associate membership’.

Nilambur by-election will thus witness three I.N.D.I. Alliance allies contesting against each other: Congress, CPI(M), and Trinamool.

BJP, meanwhile, has fielded a Christian, Mohan George, former leader of Kerala Congress (B) in the district. The party would be hoping for a strong performance in the seat, which as part of Wayanad Parliamentary Constituency, is nationally significant as the constituency of Priyanka Gandhi and formerly of Rahul Gandhi.

In the 2024 General Elections, the then BJP state president K. Surendran had secured 17,000 votes, while in the subsequent by-election, Navya Haridas secured 13,000 votes. This would represent the upper limit of what the BJP can hope to secure in the Assembly Constituency. The best case scenario for the BJP, considering its historical underperformance in by-elections in Kerala, is somewhere in the range of 8,000 -10,000 votes.

Anavar’s Rebellion Against Pinarayi

The Nilambur saga, as stated earlier, began in September 2024.

Anvar, who was considered to be close to the CM, raised allegations against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s political secretary, P. Sasi, and senior police officials, including MR Ajith Kumar IPS. Anvar has alleged the then ADGP (now DGP) Mr. Ajith Kumar as the “biggest criminal in force” while linking him with gold smuggling rackets and also accusing him of amassing wealth through corruption.

Anwar also accused Ajith Kumar of aiding attempts to sabotage the Thrissur Pooram and of frequently flouting services by engaging with RSS-affiliated leaders. A high-level police inquiry found Ajith violated service rules by secretly meeting RSS leaders but found no evidence supporting other allegations.

After being disowned by the CPM, Anvar initially attempted to align with the DMK, but this was rejected, and he ultimately used DMK’s traditional black and dark red, calling his party “Democratic Movement of Kerala”. This was mostly because while he was attacking the CPM and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress and the United Democratic Front (UDF) were not particularly inclined to take him in.

Anvar had attempted to push his political weight by putting up candidates in the Palakkad and Chelakkara by-elections in 2024; ultimately, he bargained with the UDF to withdraw his candidate in Palakkad and not in Chelakkara.

Finally, Anvar got accommodated in the Trinamool Congress. He resigned his MLA position days after joining Trinamool to avoid disqualification. Though he attempted to join the UDF officially, his efforts have been blocked by the Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheeshan.

Anwar’s open backing of Malappuram DCC president V.S. Joy for the Nilambur seat, as well as his sharp criticism of Shoukath, became problems for the Congress. Anvar accused Shoukath of past CPI(M) ties, "liberal" Islamic views, and producing "controversial" films, all in a bid to alienate conservative Muslim voters.

The Congress candidate in 2021, VV Prakash, lost by a mere 2,700 votes to Anvar. In comparison, Shoukath, who was the Congress candidate in 2016, had lost to Anvar by more than 10,000 votes. This time around, Shoukath would be hoping to finally make the cut considering the progress VV Prakash made. But the path for him isn’t so straightforward.

Anvar’s earlier success in the constituency has, to an extent, relied on negatively portraying Shoukath among Muslim voters by highlighting his more ‘liberal’ views. Shoukath takes after his father, former Minister Aryadan Muhammad, who was famous for his moderate views.

A Fight For Muslim Votes

Anvar and Shoukath in many ways represent the two opposing forces in the Muslim community in Kerala. Shoukath’s father was particularly prominent for his secular movies, and the movies that Shoukath himself produced highlighted themes that were ‘progressive’ — women’s education, radicalism in the Muslim community, and so on.

Anvar, meanwhile, is a businessman with multiple interests in realty, mining, and more, both in India and abroad. Anvar, meanwhile, has endorsed much more politically conservative views, and his volley of attacks on Ajith Kumar and P. Sasi was that they were anti-Muslim.

Anvar was initially a congressman before contesting as an independent in Eranad Assembly Constituency in 2011 and Wayanad Parliamentary Constituency in 2014. He was then accommodated within LDF by a Pinarayi Vijayan who wanted political allies to make inroads in the Muslim community that had hit a saturation point then.

His success in 2016 and 2021, along with his prominence, represented the success of these political journeymen that was till then not particularly prominent in Kerala. And the spectacular fashion in which he left LDF represents the failure of Pinrayi’s tactics. K.T. Jaleel, another pillar of Pinaryi’s Muslim outreach, also announced that he would be leaving active politics just a day after Anvar’s seismic press conference in September 2024.

LDF’s base vote in Nilambur is a mix of Hindu votes with more conservative Muslim votes that had been attracted by Anvar. UDF traditionally received minority votes but Shoukath’s more liberal views clearly led to some vote flow from the UDF to LDF in the past.

The question is to what extent will LDF be able to retain its slice of the Muslim vote, and whether its Hindu base will be amenable to voting for Shoukath. Anvar is likely to take a portion of the LDF votes but also take up a good amount of the UDF votes as the primary character in his self-declared fight against "Pinarayism".

Will The By-Election Matter?

This election thus represents something significant for the LDF too. And they have gone with a surprising choice in M. Swaraj.

Swaraj is known for his “unyielding” stands on issues and polarising rhetoric. Also, he is no stranger to controversy. During the Sabarimala protests, he made scandalous comments on Sabarimala Sasthavu (Ayyappan) and Malikkapuram. These comments most likely led to his defeat in Thirpunithara in 2021 against K. Babu of Congress, whom he had defeated earlier in 2016.

His vocal pro-Hamas stance and criticism of Operation Sindoor have also made him a more controversial figure. These views might energise a part of LDF’s core supporters but could push away moderate voters, which would certainly dim Swaraj’s chances.

Swaraj’s candidature is not particularly inspiring, and a Muslim/Christian candidate or even a less polarising Communist candidate would have been prudent. His stance that Operation Sindoor was "unnecessary" has already made him subject to attacks from what may be considered unlikely quarters.

Muslim League leader K.M. Shaji challenged Swaraj to answer whether he felt that Operation Sindoor was still unnecessary, with Shaji highlighting the fact that he and his party felt the operation was imperative.

Though the Malayalam media has been framing that the by-polls could hold significant insight into the 2025 local body election and the 2026 Assembly elections, this is not likely to be the case. Nilambur election is coming in a special set of circumstances and Anvar’s personal dynamics and connections in Nilambur produce somewhat of an unpredictable element in the election.

Shoukath is disliked by conservatives among the Muslim community, Swaraj is an off-putting character, and Anvar doesn’t have the CPM organisation that had backed him in 2016 and 2021, while the BJP is not in the race anyway. Of all the candidates, Shoukath doubtlessly has the edge, especially with heavy anti-incumbency weighing on LDF.

When the results come on 23 June, if UDF or LDF win, they would easily frame it as a harbinger of success for them in the upcoming local and assembly polls.

If Anvar ekes out a win, UDF may have egg on their face for not accommodating him, but it would more or less be a very bad signal for LDF. Anvar winning, though, will further weaken VD Satheeshan, who as the Leader of Opposition has consistently antagonised him. And the BJP’s aim in all of this would be, as mentioned earlier, to maintain their votes.

The Nilambur by-election will surely turn up the heat in Kerala’s media rooms, but it may not amount to much more than who would be its MLA for a grand 11 months.

Note: The authors would like to thank Soorya Anand for rectifying an error in the article.

Ananth Krishna and Eilin Maria Baiju

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